Dhaka, Bangladesh – Bangladesh’s ousted chief Sheikh Hasina desires a brand new passport to return to the nation subsequent month, greater than two years after fleeing to India following a mass rebellion that pressured her from energy.
The 79-year-old former prime minister was sentenced to dying in absentia final 12 months for crimes in opposition to humanity over a lethal crackdown on the student-led protests in 2024, a cost she denies.
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She faces the prospect of being hanged upon her return, as the federal government that succeeded her stays a staunch political opponent.
Dhaka has already rejected the passport request and has challenged Hasina to hunt extradition from India if she is severe about returning home.
“Bangladesh doesn’t give passports to terrorists who kill hundreds of individuals and flee. It’s going to work beneath the present extradition preparations with India to pursue and get the terrorist Hasina handed over,” State Minister for International Affairs Humaiun Kobir informed Al Jazeera.
On Tuesday, the Bangladeshi prosecutor Md Aminul Islam, who secured the dying sentence for Hasina on the Dhaka-based Worldwide Crimes Tribunal, mentioned she shall be executed if she returns dwelling.
“Sheikh Hasina has no choice however to face the execution of the decision,” Islam informed reporters.
So, what led Hasina to strategy the Bangladesh Excessive Fee in New Delhi, looking for a brand new passport and a nationwide identification card since her present paperwork have been revoked, and what’s her recreation plan?
‘She is aware of what her destiny is’
Hasina dominated Bangladesh with an iron fist for almost 20 years and nonetheless enjoys assist amongst a piece of its inhabitants, whereas many others wish to see her hanged.
Her return may worsen political tensions as Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s authorities tries to revive stability two years on from the 2024 rebellion that led to the killing of greater than 1,400 folks, in response to the United Nations.
However analysts query whether or not Hasina genuinely intends to return to face the legislation, or is utilizing the promise to revive her political fortunes from self-imposed exile in India.
For Zillur Rahman, president of the Centre for Governance Research, a Dhaka-based suppose tank, Hasina’s passport request is much less about an imminent plan to return and extra about retaining herself politically related as she tries to retain management of her Awami League social gathering.
“I believe she is aware of what her destiny is. However what she desires is to maintain Awami League leaders and activists politically engaged,” he mentioned, referring to Hasina’s social gathering, which was based by her father and Bangladesh independence motion chief Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
“So far as I perceive, she doesn’t wish to hand over the social gathering’s management to anybody else beneath any circumstances. I believe that could be a main drawback for her and for the social gathering. In any other case, the social gathering might need tried to discover a option to survive.”
Jon F Danilowicz, a retired United States diplomat who as soon as served as deputy chief of mission on the US embassy in Dhaka, was extra categorical.
“There’s zero likelihood that Hasina will return to Bangladesh in December. In my opinion, this has all been a bluff meant to rally her supporters and shift the narrative relating to her growing irrelevance at dwelling,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Faiz Sobhan, senior analysis director on the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute analysis centre, additionally sees Hasina’s promise as an effort to elevate the morale of her social gathering, which is now banned, with lots of its leaders in jail or in exile.
“The announcement retains Sheikh Hasina politically related and lets her gauge the temper at dwelling,” he mentioned. “An precise return appears inconceivable, since it will imply going through the gallows or spending the remainder of her life behind bars.”
Regardless of analysts casting doubt on the prospect of Hasina’s return, her announcement seems to have energised some Awami League leaders and supporters.
“Our chief will return. They’ve tried to cease her earlier than, however they may not cease her. They’re conspiring in opposition to her once more, however she is going to overcome these conspiracies and return,” an organising secretary of the social gathering’s central govt committee informed Al Jazeera, talking on situation of anonymity from exile in India.
When requested how Hasina would return and what steps the social gathering was taking to facilitate it, many Awami League leaders and supporters mentioned that they had no clear concept about her recreation plan.
“However she has introduced that she is going to return, and I imagine she is going to come again in December, it doesn’t matter what,” Arman Rahman, a Dhaka-based Awami League activist and former chief of its scholar wing, informed Al Jazeera.
The India query
Hasina’s future can be tied to India’s calculations.
New Delhi, her shut ally for many years, has sheltered her since she fled Dhaka in August 2024. However her continued presence has grow to be a point of contention between the 2 nations.
Dhaka has repeatedly sought Hasina’s extradition beneath a bilateral treaty. New Delhi says it has been analyzing the requests, with India’s overseas ministry in April saying it desires to “interact constructively with the brand new authorities and additional strengthen bilateral ties”.
In the meantime, each nations have signalled an curiosity in repairing strained ties.
Sreeradha Datta, professor of worldwide affairs at O P Jindal International College close to New Delhi, informed Al Jazeera that India regards Hasina as a longstanding good friend, even because it tries to separate her presence within the nation from its diplomatic engagement with Dhaka.
“Sheikh Hasina is an excellent good friend of India. [New] Delhi appears at her as a good friend whom it is going to all the time assist. That’s our official place,” she mentioned.
Former US diplomat Danilowicz believes New Delhi is more and more conscious of the diplomatic value of constant to host Hasina, however is “unlikely to facilitate” her return to Bangladesh.
“Whereas there could also be some in India who nonetheless imagine that Hasina and her social gathering present them leverage, by now the [Narendra] Modi authorities should perceive the injury that her continued presence in New Delhi is doing to efforts to normalise relations with Bangladesh,” he mentioned.
“I’m sure the Modi authorities would like to see the Hasina drawback go away, together with by having her discover a third nation to reside.”
Rahman, of the Centre for Governance Research, supplied a unique clarification for why India might proceed to shelter Hasina regardless of the diplomatic issues.
“I believe India is discovering it troublesome to digest her presence, however on the similar time, it can not let her go both,” he mentioned.
“If India doesn’t take accountability for safeguarding her now, its different allies in South Asia and elsewhere might lose belief in New Delhi. They could really feel that India doesn’t in the end defend those that have stood by it.”
Rahman believes India might proceed to supply Hasina refuge, however is unlikely to assist restore her political area in Bangladesh.
“I don’t suppose India will abandon her. However on the similar time, I don’t suppose it is going to present her with all types of political safety, significantly by serving to her return to Bangladesh and reestablish herself right here,” he mentioned.
Datta, in the meantime, doesn’t count on imminent enchancment in relations between the neighbours. “I don’t suppose Bangladesh-India relations will return to normalisation very quickly,” he mentioned.
Is a take care of BNP doable?
Many are additionally asking if Hasina may enter into some type of a political understanding with the governing Bangladesh Nationalist Get together (BNP), now managed by Prime Minister Rahman, son of Hasina’s longtime rival, Khaleda Zia, who handed away a 12 months in the past. Rahman himself lived in exile in London when Hasina was in energy.
However analysts see little chance of such a deal, with the Bangladesh Enterprise Institute’s Sobhan describing the thought as a “non-starter”.
“The BNP has little to achieve and far to lose from any lodging with the Awami League. Its base spent 16-plus years being jailed, harassed and sidelined [by Hasina], and any trace of a deal could be seen as a betrayal,” he informed Al Jazeera.
On Monday, BNP performing secretary normal and Prime Minister Rahman’s political adviser, Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, additionally dismissed the prospect of Hasina’s return.
“She is deluding herself if she thinks she will return, reimpose fascism and reclaim her throne,” Rizvi mentioned at an occasion in Dhaka.
Sobhan mentioned the BNP authorities had little room to behave exterior the decision delivered by the Worldwide Crimes Tribunal.
“A broader settlement to stabilise the nation is tough to think about, and reconciliation with out accountability or an apology is more durable nonetheless,” he mentioned.
Extradition was the “solely formal route” accessible to Dhaka, Sobhan added. “And it means being dragged again [to Bangladesh], not selecting to return.”
