Texas Longhorns junior Arch Manning entered the season because the No. 1 quarterback prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft (scheduled April 29-Might in Washington). Now, some scouts do not view him because the No. 2 and even No. 3 QB.
Arch Manning drops in newest NFL Draft rankings
ESPN’s Jordan Reid launched his up to date massive board Thursday, itemizing Manning as his QB4 behind Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss Rebels), Darian Mensah (Miami Hurricanes) and Drew Mestemaker (Oklahoma State Cowboys). He ranks No. 17 general within the pool of fifty gamers.
Reid likes Manning’s mixture of dimension (6-foot-4, 222 kilos), arm energy and mobility. Nevertheless, the scout feels he has room for enchancment with regards to studying defenses.
“Manning continues to be solely at his finest with ideas that enable him to execute easy reads,” wrote Reid. “When attempting to make full-field progressions, he can maintain onto the ball too lengthy. There are additionally too many moments when poor footwork and mechanics result in scattershot ball placement.”
Manning’s indecision confirmed in a 20-17 Week 4 win over the Tennessee Volunteers. The QB was flagged for 2 unlawful ahead passes.
So, Manning has struggled to look the a part of a QB1, although the No. 1-ranked Longhorns are 4-0. However not all blame ought to fall on the QB. Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and the remainder of the offensive teaching workers might not be enjoying to his strengths.
How Texas coaches will help Arch Manning
The Longhorns are aiming to rework Manning right into a purer passer however could also be doing so at the price of his biggest asset: his mobility.
Texas is looking fewer run performs for Manning this season to guard him. Pro Football Focus credited him with 48 designed runs final season and 32 scrambles. Designed runs are performs the place the coach calls the QB’s quantity, whereas scrambles are when he runs whereas improvising. This season, he has scrambled 20 occasions and had 4 designed runs.
Not letting Manning run might be making him really feel uncomfortable, resulting in overthinking and missed reads. The 2 penalties towards Tennessee serve for instance. It could additionally clarify why he is taking for much longer to throw. Per PFF, he is averaging 3.13 seconds to throw, up from 2.88 in 2025.
Texas coaches might argue Manning might get harm if he runs an excessive amount of. However what else might injure him? Taking too many sacks.
Manning has taken 10 sacks in 2026, posting an alarming 23.3 p.c pressure-to-sack ratio (p.c of QB pressures that finish in a sack). In 2025, he took 22 sacks, posting a a lot better 13.3 p.c pressure-to-sack ratio.
For years, coaches and analysts have mentioned, “QBs should keep within the pocket.” However they should not keep there for too lengthy—the QBs who do not take fewer sacks and win extra.
See Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix for instance. Since 2024, he is tied for third within the league in wins (26). It is no coincidence he is one of many league’s least-sacked QBs. Nix is tied for ninth in pressure-to-sack ratio (11.6 percent) and completed second final season (9.5 percent).
Texas has a bye week on Saturday earlier than going through the 2-2 Oklahoma Sooners within the Crimson River Rivalry in Dallas on Oct. 10 (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET). Through the break, Longhorns coaches ought to draw up run performs for Manning, which can assist him appear like a possible QB1 within the draft once more.
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