Poland has heightened its air defence posture, following repeated alleged incursions into its airspace in latest weeks.
The Polish Air Pressure launched preventive air patrols on September 17 geared toward securing the japanese a part of Polish airspace.
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Warsaw formally blamed Russia, however Moscow has denied allegations that it’s concentrating on NATO nations.
“Following the most recent Russian provocations and acts of aggression, I’ve made the choice to develop the safety of our airspace. We’re rising the exercise of our air forces, together with F-16 plane and helicopters,” wrote Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz on social media.
These patrols got here with a political warning.
“I need to current to the general public probably the most possible state of affairs for the subsequent few months, as a result of it’s a state of affairs that assumes critical occasions and requires focus, seriousness and the psychological readiness to cross troublesome exams,” stated Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
“In keeping with intelligence, the Russian plan additionally consists of hybrid drone and missile strikes towards nations supporting Ukraine, together with Poland,” he stated in parliament. “These potentialities have been talked about for a very long time, and at the moment the knowledge could be very constant and, sadly, convincing.”
He stated the intention of suspected Russian incursions was “to weaken the motivation of NATO nations to use NATO laws within the occasion of aggression towards any member state”.
Days later, on September 23, Poland stated an Mi-8 helicopter entered Polish airspace from Kaliningrad for 42 seconds.
“Russia is as soon as once more testing the readiness of our air defence,” stated Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command.
Essentially the most critical Polish declare of a violation was by a Russian Su-24 reconnaissance plane within the Baltic Sea in February 2025, an incident Russia reportedly acknowledged.
Throughout the previous week, suspected Russian drones had been shot down twice in Moldova, and as soon as in Romania on September 24, observers stated.
Poland and Romania are two NATO members instantly bordering Ukraine by way of which army provides and Western officers have reached Ukraine. Hungary can also be a NATO member bordering Ukraine, however has not allowed army provides by way of its territory.
The most recent alleged airspace violations have once more raised the spectre of an open Russian assault on NATO territory, a prospect European intelligence chiefs have been warning about since January 2024.
Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka this week instructed The Guardian {that a} Russian assault, which “may contain a restricted incursion, false-flag provocations, [or] an enormous affect marketing campaign”, would possibly are available in a matter of “months, not years”.
Russian data, and actuality
Throughout the previous week, Russian officers made claims to have captured cities within the japanese Ukrainian Donetsk area.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence stated on September 19 Moscow’s forces had seized 5,300 sq. kilometres (2,050 sq. miles) and greater than 220 settlements in Ukraine because the begin of 2026.
Moscow launched drone strikes towards Ukrainian cities each evening of the week, and mixed them with missiles on September 19, 22 and 24, killing a minimum of eight individuals and injuring dozens. A type of deaths was a cleric at a monastery in Kherson. Two had been killed when Russia launched three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv, together with a maternity clinic.
“Because the starting of this 12 months, Russia has used greater than 2,100 missiles of varied varieties towards Ukraine. Greater than 950 of those had been ballistic missiles,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the United Nations Basic Meeting. Throughout the identical interval, Russia launched 63,000 drones into the nation, he stated.
“We have to gradual it down earlier than we transfer to the subsequent stage,” he stated. “As a result of subsequent 12 months, there’s a actual risk that AI – not simply people – will start to determine what occurs on the battlefield.”
In keeping with the Institute for the Research of Warfare, which assesses territorial adjustments utilizing geolocated open sources, Russian claims of a critical advance are vastly overstated.
It estimates that Russia has captured a web 147.7sq km (57sq miles) within the first eight months of 2026, its worst efficiency of the warfare by far. Ukrainian forces had liberated a minimum of 972.56sq km (375sq miles) from Russian occupation throughout the identical interval, it has discovered.
These counteroffensives have come close to Oleksandrivka, straddling the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, and across the city of Lyman in northern Donetsk.
The Lyman operation, codenamed Vivaldi, noticed 50sq km (20sq miles) liberated in a second part of the operation in latest days, Ukrainian officers stated.
“Artillery and drone techniques focused enemy command posts, communication hubs, logistics, crossings, and reserves. Air defence and digital warfare techniques created a protecting protect over the world of fight operations. The blinded enemy was unable to decipher the plan of the operation, and our models consolidated on the liberated traces,” stated an announcement from the Third Military Corps commanded by Andriy Biletsky.
Russia’s vote, a referendum on the warfare
In the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Occasion triumphed within the Duma elections, elevating its majority from 315 seats within the 450-seat physique to 355.
Russian officers prejudged the end result as a optimistic referendum on Putin’s warfare in Ukraine.
“I’ve little question that the end result will verify the dedication of all our events and voters to the course the president has set each domestically and for our overseas coverage,” International Minister Sergey Lavrov instructed reporters forward of the election.
“We are going to proceed to make sure assist for our president’s course and produce victory over the enemies of the Fatherland nearer,” deputy chairman of Russia’s Safety Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Russian social media.
Ukraine launched its largest mixed air strike of the warfare on the ultimate day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated on September 20 that Russian air defences downed greater than 1,600 Ukrainian drones within the earlier 24 hours, a minimum of 450 of them heading for Moscow.
Some bought by way of, placing Moscow’s oil refinery out of motion for the second time this 12 months. Movies posted on-line confirmed a number of fires, suggesting a lot of profitable strikes.
Throughout the previous week, Ukraine additionally struck the Kuybyshev refinery in Samara and the Bashneft refinery in Bashkortostan.
