QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You beforehand predicted that gold would decline resulting from compelled promoting to boost money, partly triggered by the power disaster involving Iran, and I imagine that evaluation was appropriate. Turkey, as an example, has reportedly bought 60 tons of gold whereas additionally dumping U.S. Treasuries. Now, with tensions escalating between Turkey and Israel—and given Netanyahu’s current rejection of negotiated peace with Iran, stating that “savages can’t be trusted”—I’m involved concerning the broader implications. On condition that U.S. Treasury yields are rising as you anticipated resulting from geopolitical battle, do you foresee this escalating into a serious Center Japanese struggle?
HL
ANSWER: Within the case of Turkey, it’s a vital internet importer of oil. The nation depends closely on overseas sources to fulfill its power wants, with home manufacturing protecting solely a small fraction of its consumption. To fulfill that price within the face of their perpetual foreign money decline, they dumped US treasuries and bought 60 tons of gold to purchase power. The foreign money is in a digital non secular bear market.
Consequently, I’ve mentioned many instances, when home stress rises, authorities search for an exterior enemy. That is what you might be witnessing. There’s vital stress between Turkey and Israel proper now. Relations have severely deteriorated, reaching certainly one of their most strained factors in years, pushed by the faltering economics utilizing a mixture of the continuing struggle in Gaza and a brand new, direct rivalry in Syria to justify the stress.
The Important Sources of Battle used to Divert Home Pressure
Turkey has been one of the vocal critics of Israel’s navy actions in Gaza, accusing it of committing “genocide.” Turkey has suspended all commerce with Israel, closed its airspace to Israeli plane, and joined a genocide case towards Israel on the Worldwide Court docket of Justice . In a placing escalation, a Turkish court docket has even issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on these expenses, and Turkey has requested Interpol to situation a “purple discover” for his arrest. None of this alters the home financial deterioration. But, it makes a terrific diversion tactic.
Probably the most quick flashpoint is Syria. Following the autumn of the Assad regime, Turkey has deepened its ties with Syria’s new authorities and is seen as attempting to increase its navy affect there. This can be a main concern for Israel. On August 18, 2026, Israel launched an airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, claiming it was a preemptive strike to forestall Turkey from deploying air protection programs that would threaten Israeli plane. This occasion introduced the 2 international locations dangerously near a direct navy confrontation.
Historic Disputes:
Mutual accusations have additionally spiked round historic points as they all the time do. In July 2026, Israel formally acknowledged the Armenian Genocide, a transfer that deeply angered Turkey. The accusation is that the Ottoman Empire systematically killed 1.5 million Armenians throughout World Warfare I, and it’s acknowledged as genocide by over 30 international locations and quite a few worldwide organizations. In response, Turkish officers made sturdy statements towards Israel, which Israel’s International Minister referred to as “textbook incitement to genocide.” Turkey accuses Israel of Genocide in Gaza.
May This Result in a Direct Warfare?
Regardless of the extreme hostility, most analysts don’t imagine a direct struggle probably. Each side have said they don’t search a direct battle. They’re persevering with to make use of again channels that I do know of off the headlines. That is commonplace in an effort to forestall any miscalculation.
I can affirm that the US is performing as a mediator proper now since it’s a key ally to each international locations. It’s attempting to de-escalate tensions in Syria, to forestall an unintended conflict.
There isn’t a query that this can be a Center East “chilly struggle.” The battle is enjoying out within the political, diplomatic, and authorized arenas, in addition to by means of competitors for affect in locations like Syria and the Japanese Mediterranean, moderately than on a direct navy battlefield. The purple flag is the triumvirate of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
Briefly, whereas the connection has hit a brand new low and the chance of a direct incident is moderately excessive. There are efforts underway behind the scenes attempting to handle the tensions to maintain them from escalating right into a full-blown struggle.
Now we have an essential Directional Change in Israel in 2027 and the vital turning level aligns with the ECM in 2028.Our fashions have proven rising volatility was to start right here in August and escalate into November.
